A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
